Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
